Running on empty: the implications of Thailand’s reliance on declining natural gas reserves

The Thai power sector is poised to enter a transformative phase, driven by a shortage of domestic natural gas; changes to the regulatory framework; global dynamics; and the evolution of clean energy technology. Although Thailand’s excess generating capacity and low current LNG prices have provided a respite, we believe that change will soon impact the industry structure, investment opportunities and all industry stakeholders

To provide insight into the threats and opportunities associated with such a potentially vast transformation, AWR Lloyd, in collaboration with Pöyry Energy Ltd., is pleased to announce the launch of a new multi-client study. Running on Empty will provide strategic insights in key themes such as:

• Risks from an emerging LNG dependency: Thailand’s national power development plan sees a massive transition to LNG dependency. Our bottom-up field-based Natural Gas Supply and Demand model indicates the risks may be greater than anticipated.
• Regulatory framework: a necessary evolution: Thailand’s energy sector regulatory reform is in early stages. However, it is already clear that some elements, for example, the embrace of market forces to guide energy purchases, will have profound impacts.
• Renewable energy wildcard: Continued declines in energy technology costs, a growing commercial track record, and the risk of higher imported LNG costs make renewable energy, energy storage and electric vehicles increasingly viable. Using Pöyry’s BID3 electricity market model, the study team will deliver insights into the impacts of these shifts on stakeholders.
• Winners and losers: These changes will create a new playing field, providing a new set of threats and opportunities to industry participants. Running on Empty offers clients a set of tools and analysis to enable better decision-making.

The AWR Lloyd – Pöyry team provides a unique combination of global expertise and detailed understanding of Thailand’s energy markets. Enabled by years of complimentary experience in the Thai gas, power, and renewable energy sectors and two existing market models on Thai gas and power, the team represents an ideal partnership for investigating the array of opportunities that will emerge in Thailand’s new energy frontier.

AWR Lloyd and Pöyry are now inviting industry stakeholders to join the study as both regular subscribers and steering committee members. The study will commence with a kick-off in Bangkok targeted for September, with a final report due in December. Participants who join prior to the start of the study will have the opportunity to influence its focus and direction.

To learn more about this topical and important study please get in touch with Jack Kneeland.

Jack Kneeland

Senior Advisor, AWR Lloyd
Tel: +66 89 206 4800
Email: jack.kneeland@awrlloyd.com